Stanford University economists estimate that President Donald Trump’s publicity rallies have resulted in an additional 30,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19, and possibly more than 700 deaths, according to an article published online this weekend. Arrived.
The research, led by B. Douglas Bernheim, president of economics at Stanford University, analyzed subsequent data from 18 Trump rallies held between June 20 and September 22, including three indoors. Burnham said the event in an email depends on statistical methods after the event.
Infectious disease experts have long suspected that the presidential rallies ahead of the November 3 election could be a so-called mass-market event. But so far scientists have not received a good read on their effect, due to the lack of solid contact tracing in many states.
What is worry
Over the past few months, Trump has held dozens of rallies in states such as Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, where coronovirus infection rates were already on the rise.
In each event, several thousand people are said to have participated. While most gatherings have been ruled out, video footage shows attendees gathered tightly and many were not wearing masks, posing a risk of spreading the virus by appeasing their candidate.
Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security Infectious Disease Specialist Dr. “It’s not a big deal to say that there is a huge possibility of the virus spreading,” said Amesh Adalja.
Adalja said the Stanford document was “suggesting” the triggering of events, but was uncertain because it was not based on an investigation of actual cases. This would help confirm whether participants were exposed to the virus in this incident, rather than in other places where transmission was much higher.
what do we know?
Minnesota public health officials staged four COVID-19 outbreaks and more than 25 cases at Trump rallies held across the state in September and October.
Eleven other state health departments contacted by Reuters said they were unable to detect the infection at rallies, although some, including Michigan and Wisconsin, determined the latter had tested positive for COVID-19. Individuals were present at the Trump campaign events.
What data is needed?
Pathologists say an event of such magnitude can help detect harsh contact with the contagion of these gatherings.
But the United States has fallen behind other developed countries due to the Trump administration’s lack of funding and coordination for contact tracing.
“The problem is, we haven’t done anything to get real numbers,” said Dr. Genomics Specialist and Director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California. Said Eric Topol. Instead, it is subjected to inferences and mathematical models.
For example, scientists can use gene sequencing to detect minute changes in the genetic code of the virus as it passes from person to person, allowing them to develop a map of how the virus is moving. . Such work has been used outside of the United States, including Australia and Hong Kong, to detect outbreaks of COVID-19.
“If we had just one rally where there was a definitive tracing, you could take some extra action. But we don’t have one. Our country has acted as if contact tracing does not exist. ”
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